The Former President's Ukrainian Peace Proposal Represents a Gift to Putin

Initially, Donald Trump appeared to take a resolute position concerning Ukraine. After delivering warnings of "severe repercussions" in August in case Vladimir Putin continued blocking truce talks, the former president eventually imposed major sanctions on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision significantly affected the Russian leader's capacity to support his aggression in the region.

Yet, through his latest comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, which was drafted by American and Russian officials without Ukrainian or European involvement, the former president has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia position.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's initiative would essentially benefit Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while placing the country's democracy in danger. Despite strong proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the plan actually weaken that same independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his corporate past, the former president continues to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, implying handing Russia a section of Ukrainian land will satisfy the president. However, Russia's invasion is not simply about controlling a destroyed region of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's obvious desire to destroy it so it ceases to serves as an appealing example for the Russia's population of the democratic government that his growing authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Giveaways

While keeping in position the presently divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the proposal would compel the nation to abandon all of Donetsk region. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with land that its military have been unsuccessful to seize in exceeding a lengthy period of warfare, this concession would render Ukrainian defenses severely weakened.

The area is the location of the nation's well-known "defensive line", the fortified defensive positions that are a critical impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these positions, giving Russian forces a open path to the capital in case he later choose to renew the hostilities.

Military Limitations

Then, in a action that would facilitate renewed conflict simpler for Russia, Trump would mandate the nation to diminish the size of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, Trump's plan imposes no such constraints on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's legitimate government as extremists, the proposal asserts: "All Nazi ideology and actions must be rejected and forbidden." Seemingly to emphasize this point, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump imposes no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by holding votes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the proposal has the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in law its stance of peaceful relations towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent accords in the past – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to recognize the nation's borders in exchange for surrendering its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a ceasefire and a restoration of seized land in eastern Ukraine to the government – why should anyone have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international defense commitments. Although the proposal threatens a "strong joint military response" if the Russian Federation renew its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the details vary from fuzzy to concerning. The proposal would not only block Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent member states from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the security presence, likely led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from replenishing his reduced troops, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Response

Another parallel deal apparently would offer the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and continuous aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. However in contrast to a powerful national defense – the nation's best deterrent against renewed Russian aggression – the credibility of the parallel accord would rely on the dedication of alliance members, like the US administration, to act militarily to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not